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Earnings call takeaway: New products in September

Apple posted record earnings yesterday, yet the stock still dropped amid concerns over Steve Jobs' health (I'll refrain from speculating because I find it tasteless and it's none of my business) and lower projected gross margins for the September quarter (Q4). Although Apple is famous for under-promising/over-delivering, especially when it comes to projected sales and gross margin performance, during yesterday's call, CFO Peter Oppenheimer offered up a very interesting explanation for Apple's lower estimates: new products!

Although Apple historically has a lower gross margins in the September quarter because of the Back-to-School promotion, Apple also added that a "new product that [it] [couldn't] discuss" would also result in lower gross-margins. Throughout the call, Oppenheimer kept throwing out phrases like "product transition," "new additions to the product line" and a little mantra that went something like, "Apple makes state of the art new products that the competition just can't match. When we do that earlier in an introduction, costs are higher."

We had a good time speculating what new products/changes to the product line will appear in September (or in the 4th quarter, more accurately) in the liveblog and the press has joined in that speculation today. ZDNet thinks that products will be brought out at lower prices, so that Apple can drive volume and gain marketshare. Over at eWeek, they are guessing everything from a shift in microprocessors, to low-cost portables aimed at schools to revamped AppleTVs.

The general thought (or wish) in our chat last night centered around new MacBook Pros, lower priced Airs and revamped Minis or other headless Macs.

My personal speculation is that while I expect current line products to drop in price a bit (not a huge drop, but a drop), and think it is high time for a MacBook Pro redesign, I'm going to guess that new displays are part of the "transition." The Apple Cinema Display line is not only overpriced, it is long-in-the-tooth when compared to products in its pricepoint (or even lower pricepoints). OLED displays could be expensive, and it would certainly be technology that no one else is pushing.

For me, the key to Oppenheimer's words wasn't just the talk of lower gross margins -- because that doesn't necessarily mean lower prices -- it was all the talk of "state of the art products that the competition just can't match." That signifies something that the competition (presumably, HP and Dell) isn't already selling a product or technology that Apple is looking at introducing. With the number of patents Apple has, there is plenty of room for speculation.

What are your best (or most outrageous) guesses? Leave them in the comments and we'll all see how wrong (or right) we are in September.

Apple posted record earnings yesterday, yet the stock still dropped amid concerns over Steve Jobs' health (I'll refrain from speculating...
 

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Nerdold Nerdith

Virtual Reality, anyone? Just a thought.

August 11 2008 at 9:46 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
Dominic M

It's either blu-ray on macs or a new game station or both :)

July 27 2008 at 12:34 AM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
Pazuzu

We need a cheap MacBook. Dell is offering a Vostro 1000 for €331.00 INCLUDING VAT. With the economy on a down turn, people need cheaper priced products. If Apple released a €330 MacBook I doubt they could keep up with the demand. Think about it people want to move away from PCs but in times like these cost is king. Apple could dominate overnight with a cheap MacBook. In Ireland the iPhone 3G sold out in 1 day. Why? because on a €100 a month plan the phone only costs €49! People thought, "I get ALL this for only €49?" and they went nuts. Cheap MacBook equals market supremacy.

July 24 2008 at 4:24 AM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
Sam


I'm thinking a tablet with a iMac-like dock. Touch interface while undocked, but can work like a standard iMac while docked. There was a patent from Apple for something similar to this a while back, and this would be both revolutionary, and a "product transition".

I'd certainly be interested-one machine, several uses, less fracking syncing

July 23 2008 at 4:15 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
Ethan

I predict:

Apple is seeing a transition period in the near future that will change the way we store our data and use our devices. The technology is not there, and because we will be waiting for it to arrive on a consumer level (read: SSD, Snow Leopard, 3G), Apple is prepared to take a hit in the near future in order to be at the front of the game by mid-2009 when these technologies are more economically available.

All portable devices (including laptops) will have a proprietary lean CPU developed by Apple (reason for acquiring P.A. Semi) and optimized for the eventual release of Snow Leopard. All hard drives offerings will be SSD (less storage space is the impetus for Snow Leopard's lean apps).

However, we will no longer need huge amounts of storage on our primary devices because we will be able to sync to our 'cloud' of data. MobileMe is the tip of the iceberg (its potential has not yet been fully realized by the public), and with this new direction, we will see a home 'server', aided by Time Capsule and AT+T 3G network, that will manage, organize and store excess data that can't be permanently stored on devices like iPhone or an SSD based laptop. It won't really matter where your data is anymore -- it will be accessible from anywhere and from any device because of Time Capsule and MobileMe.

End prediction.

July 23 2008 at 1:30 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
MadMike

New Macbook Pro, probably with a slightly redesigned case that is tapered but still around 1" thick. Will most likely include the new Centrino 2 platform with the exception of the video card and the removal of WiMax. LED backlit 1680x1050 & 1920x1200 displays.

The new mac cinema displays will probably be a minimum of 1920x1200 and be LED backlit. I wouldn't go as far as OLED. OLED is too expensive, even for Apple. As far as connectors, maybe HDMI and/or DisplayPort.

A new Mac Mini would be great - but I don't think they are going to do anything spectacular with it. Same old mac mini with a basic hardware refresh to Centrino 2 sans WiMax.

July 23 2008 at 11:23 AM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
barry

Good summary, for those of you who were interested, I found that you could read the entire transcript of the earnings call here:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/86056-apple-f3q08-qtr-end-6-28-08-earnings-call-transcript?source=AAPL

July 23 2008 at 7:29 AM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
Banks

2 thoughts:
1. iTablet with MultiTouch, but BECAUSE with iPhone 2.0 and AppStore, Apple/Jobs has created the mobile computing PLATFORM!
2 The revolutionary product will be a Cellular iSight HD Video Cam that is always connected and allows everyone to be a broadcaster or immediate poster to the Apple version of YouTube. This is part of the reason for no upgrade to camera on iPhone 3G or no video included. Will require monitoring to eliminate porn and such, but this will be a game changer... and someone will come out with it.

July 23 2008 at 7:19 AM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
pezzi

well, as much as I wish for some of the products you guys were mentioning, why don't we look at what Apple actually said and what's most likely, given the current market.
Now, Apple said "new products that the competition just can't match" - let look at the product lines of apple and see which of all the speculations can actually deliver what that sentence promises:
Macs

First. although rather boring, possibility which comes to mind - a new architecture, new Intel chipset or the like. Even blue-ray would fall into that category. But - that would neither mean new products nor can the competition not match that - so we can savely rule that out, I guess.
An iMac with OLED display? Definitely something which can bring the margin down by 3%, as OLED displays are still expensive to manufacture. But, again, not a new product and possibly not even something which the competition can't match.
OLED display plus Multitouchscreen? Something which indeed the competition can't match but then again - although Apple is known for dismissing technology which they feel is outdated - I don't think Apple will get rid of the mouse that soon.
Hence, my guess - they were not referring to the iMac.
How about the laptops?
Most what I've said above goes for the Macbooks as well. But a Tablet book? Why not:
A tablet Macbook with OLED display and multitouch would indeed be something which the competition can't match that easy. Then, bring it out in several flavours (size, capacity, you name it) and stick with a relatively low price (thereby competing with the new hype in the market, the "netbooks" like the eee PC) - there you have your lower margin. But don't expect it to be just 1,5 times the size of an iPhone - it'll probably be more like 2,5 times the size.

Next product lines: iPods
What possibilities does Apple have - an iPod shuffle with OS X? No way. iPod nano, same question? No way. iPod classic with OS X - well, maybe...more or less an iPod touch with harddrive (or with 64 or more GB SSD) - could be a possibility - but will that alone bring down the margin by 3%? Probably not. And it'll be not a new product, either. So even if September is the month for iPod updates, I just don't see it.
But, again, maybe the tablet "thingy" - would also fill the "gap" between the iPod touch/iPhone (which, with 2.0 have become more or less full-fledged computers anyway) and the macbooks.

Other
Looking at some of the patents that Apple filed in the past, there might just be some development in the AppleTV sector, or let's call it the "digital hub".
We know that the mini has been neglected by Apple for a long time. And during the results call they even said that the AppleTV is still not more than a hobby currently, but that they are still following the digital hub idea.
And there was a patent going around for a PVR-device, controlled by an iPod-like remote control. Plus, a while ago, Apple has bought a company which specializes in TV technology.
So maybe it will be a huge cinema display with built-in AppleTV/PVR? Nope, probably not. Why? Well, Apple has just, with the iPhone, entered a new market for them with huge competition - and although the iPhone stirred up the market quite a bit, looking at sales figures, Apple is still way behind players like Nokia or SonyEricsson. So, entering another new market and entering the ring with heavyweights such as Sony, Panasonic, Samsung? Granted, it would be a possibility, but not a very likely one.
But - a PVR box, a Tivo/AppleTV/mac mini combination?
Admitted, this is the thing I've been longing for - and it might be a bit more likely
The patents which Apple filed for their PVR idea are indeed something which the competition can't match. Plus, looking at the remote application from the App store and expanding the features a bit, it doesn't seem too far off. Sell this in a variety of flavors (with built-in harddrive of different sizes, with optical drive,...). What also points to this - in order to be successful, they can't ask for a much higher price than the AppleTV currently, and, as has been noted before here - September would be just in time for christmas shopping, so it would have to be some sort of consumer device.

So, that's a bit more than my $.02.
And of course, we could all be wrong and it will be something completely different.
In any case, I will eagerly await the next big event - hopefully coming soon!

July 23 2008 at 7:15 AM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
vdawgb

I agree with the LCD keyboard. But let's go away from the keyboard. Let's make a lappy with a second display (multi-touch, of course) on the bottom, a la the Nintendo DS. The bottom multi-touch display would not only act as a keyboard (with tactile feedback), but be able to change depending on the app (think photoshop keystrokes, dynamically changing when you push option, shift, etc.) or game. You could also use as a wacom with a stylus for writing/drawing, etc. or the whole thing could act as a giant multi-touch trackpad (think ease in browsing).

If this were e-ink instead of lcd, then it could also act as an e-book reader on the bottom, or display additional info on the second display... think of how well nintendo has leveraged the DS and made it unique. Now apply that to Apple and a laptop, and you have the MacBook DS.

In addition, blu ray will finally be offered as an option, as the last intel release said that the new processor family will be able to play a bluray on a single battery charge. Add in a little OLED for the main display and we got rid of both the old and LED lighting in favor of an even more battery friendly option.

July 23 2008 at 2:33 AM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
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