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On Apple's $40 billion, and the question of dividends

AAPL has been hitting new highs just about every day. Yesterday the stock price hit an intra-day high of $230.20, a lofty height indeed. We pointed out earlier that Apple now has the fourth largest market cap of any publicly traded domestic company, so maybe it's time to revisit the question of Apple declaring dividends on its stock.

Apple has not declared a dividend since December of 1995. After the last shareholder meeting, Steve Jobs stated that the money was best left in the bank so there would be no question of loans if something big was to be bought. "The cash in the bank gives us tremendous flexibility," explained Steve.

The Motley Fool makes an interesting case in favor of dividends. Apple has no history of massive acquisitions, and keeping $40 billion around for just that reason sounds less than reasonable. A case is also made for keeping the money as preparation for the next big recession. This doesn't seem to hold much water, however, since analysts predict that Apple will grow by 18% per year for the next five years. That should provide more than enough cash, predicting that Apple will report net income of around $21 billion in 2014.

Of course, predictions are often wrong, but Apple has been excellent when it comes to beating expected earnings numbers for some time. 77% of informal Motley Fool poll respondents think that Apple should declare dividends. After all, that cash is really owned by the stockholders and it seems that a good number of them would like to get some of it back.

Read on for another view.

Some contrary opinions were voiced on CNN Money. One reason cited for issuing no dividends is to keep the Apple legal war chest fat, since Apple has a history of being litigious. That seems reasonable, but then again, $40 billion is well over the amount Apple would need to pay for endless lawyers.

With huge amounts of cash at its disposal, Apple can tie up the best component prices. Due to the success of the iPod and iPhone, Apple has become the biggest customer for flash memory in the industry, and to get the best prices the company often pre-pays vendors, as it did with Samsung last summer with a half billion dollar order. Another reason is real estate: Apple has spoken about building a second Cupertino campus which, if it happens, won't be cheap. Also not cheap is the plan to open 25 stores in China over the next two years along with the other stores planned around the world.

As a long time AAPL owner, my take on it is fairly simple: If it ain't broke, don't fix it. Not declaring a dividend certainly hasn't hurt Apple one bit. It sure hasn't restrained investors from buying the stock, and so issuing dividends doesn't seem to be an incentive for getting the stock sold. But the worst reason I can think of for declaring dividends is that that by doing so, the value of my stock will be diluted, thereby making it worth less. It is true that after a dividend, everyone still owns the same percentage of the company they started with, but that percentage is worth less.

I bought AAPL when dividends were declared, but that didn't enter into my decision to buy. When dividend distribution was stopped, it didn't faze me one bit, since I bought for growth, not periodic income, and that strategy has paid off handsomely. If Steve and the board feel more comfortable rolling around in money, that's just fine with me. I don't see any positive outcome of declaring dividends at this point. If you see differently, please let us know in the comments.

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Apple

AAPL has been hitting new highs just about every day. Yesterday the stock price hit an intra-day high of $230.20, a lofty height indeed. We...
 

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jmnet7

Guerro, Chris does have his facts straight. I learned about this just yesterday. As we all well know by now, Obama made a lot of promises he had no intention of keeping.

As for dividends, my father mostly invested in stocks that gave dividends. Now that he has passed away, my very elderly step mother lives entirely on the dividends she receives each month from all the stock investments he built up. I used to hope Apple would do the same, but with this current administration I have changed my mind.

March 26 2010 at 4:11 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
mangeek

40B is about 1.1M for each employee. If Apple wanted to become 'the most respected company -ever-', it could spend $4B setting up a trust that pumped money into employees' retirement 401k funds or IRAs, that would be about 100K towards each employee's long-term financial health.

March 26 2010 at 3:23 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
1 reply to mangeek's comment
David Winograd

Mangeek,
Are you mad?
You live in America buddy and your idea of funding 401ks for employees is right out of Alice's Adventures in Wonderland.

Are you being satirical or just hopelessly misinformed on how the American financial structure works?

My only other thought on why you would say something like that is that you haven't finished high school.

Absurd, doesn't start to cover your altruism.

David

March 26 2010 at 9:43 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
james

How much does the company earn in interest on that $40 Billion? I'm sure that's a factor.

March 26 2010 at 2:14 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
Scott

It's time for Apple to bring 100% of the manufacturing back to the USA. This move would pay for itself in gained USA sales. It's time for Apple to make America stronger by increasing our jobs and economy. We are sending far too many dollars away just like we did with the auto industry. When will we learn?

March 26 2010 at 8:09 AM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
1 reply to Scott's comment
DCGO

What are you talking about? How would it pay for itself in "gained USA sales"? How are we sending dollars away by Apple building products in China? This makes no sense. Learn some basic economics.

March 28 2010 at 12:37 AM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
David Ahn

I too vote for a stock split.

March 26 2010 at 12:22 AM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
jbelkin

Frankly, I think it's old style thinking to think a dividend is automatically necessary.

Apple is clearly a growth stock and the cash is factored in its stock price.

The exchanges of today is vastly different than the 1900's when the US stock exchange was set up where for the most part there was hardly any movement in stock prices minus the volatile years of the 30's ... whereas now we have essentially a 24/7 exchange that reflects WORLDWIDE the stock value - for better or worse.

Dividends for tech companies generally just means a big cash outlay to its founder/large shareholders ...

Or a in MS' case, that was a good choice because the only thing they were going to do with that $32 billion initial outlay was to waste it on another money losing business unit (zune, watch OS, Xbox, etc ...).

Apple on the other hand needs the cash/has the luxury to do things like spending $1 BILLION to lock up DRAM chips or $250 million to lock up ipad screens ... money that will help returns and margins that hover around 35-40% ... in other words, what is a better way to spend that cash - give it to the shareholders or have the shareholders invest in a company that create new products that have a return of 35-50% (or more) ... humm, who here can guarantee a 35% return as Apple's margins for 2010 will unlikely fall below that?)

Just like Southwest's profitability allowed it to bet/buy contracts locking in oil at $35 a barrel while other poorer airlines without the cash flow had to pay up $130 for a barrel?

Which is smarter?

It's one thing for a slow growth company like a utility - earnings are steady with growth always in single digits if not barely breaking 1% ... but for a comapny in a volatile sector?

AND one in which the stock price clearly reflects the cash on hand?

Dividend is an ancient reflex thing that people say without really thinking through what they are thinking ... or in this case, not thinking. It's right for some slow growth stocks but not for Apple right now - maybe when steve Job retires ...

March 25 2010 at 4:51 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
Rego

For all the reasons stated Apple should keep on doing it's thing and not declare dividends.

March 25 2010 at 2:52 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
drandall

dividends are not the way to go. a huge war chest gives apple options, options that i, as a shareholder, want them to have.

what i would like to see is a split. a nice 3-1 split would drop the share price down around $76, making it more attractive to first time investors and rewarding long-term investors.

yes, i know that technically no money is made from a split, but it signals confidence and generally sets of a wave of investment which traditionally drives the stock price up quickly, generating billions in new wealth for investors without diluting apple's war chest.

in the long run, the only thing better than holding apple stock is holding 3 times as much apple stock.

March 25 2010 at 2:43 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
Quinn Taylor

Perhaps this is crazy talk, but if stockholders would like to get back some of the money they invested, the traditional strategy is to sell stock. To my view, when you purchase stock, the money doesn't really "belong" to you — the stock you purchased does, and the money belongs to the company whose stock you purchased. You can't really have it both ways.

To me, it seems like people want FREE money in addition to the lucrative gains AAPL has made. Anytime someone gets a sense of entitlement, I get a strange urge to slap them silly. Basically, this is a case of "you're doing well, and you can't possibly use all that money, so you should give some of it to me." Just turn that around and see if you'd feel inclined to give someone a chunk of your profits for free.

If the stock you bought does well, that's already a reward in itself. (I'd daresay anyone who has owned AAPL over the last year is not hurting in that sense.) Pushing for dividends boils down to short-term greed that favors the investor, but does little or nothing to help the company continue to grow. I say leave the money where it is or sell your stock. Now stop whining and get off my lawn. ;-)

March 25 2010 at 12:50 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
Edsel

Stock split would be a better deal for Apple shareholders.

When MSFT declared dividends the price of their stock became flaccid. Perhaps a coincidence with their flaccid product offerings too.

March 25 2010 at 12:40 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
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