Filed under: Analysis / Opinion, Apple Corporate, Humor, Apple Financial, Apple
Is Apple Doomed?
Apple doomed? That's what David Keppelmeyer thinks. Blogging at DanAquariam, Keppelmeyer suggests that a combination of financial underperformance, ongoing legal challenges and increased competition belies Apple's strong stock performance. Of course, we are talking about an article here that says Microsoft's Zune "is a huge blow to Apple" so you may want to carefully consider the source of this doom-and-gloom-prediction as you read through the article.
Us? We're pretty bullish on Apple, but then again, you've got to consider our inclinations too.
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 4)
Alex said 1:18PM on 11-22-2006
What increased competition? Last I checked apple was gaining marketshare in the pc market, and unquestionably dominant in the mp3 player. Surely he doesn't mean Vista. I am betting that this will be the #1 factor getting people to switch TO apple in the next few years.
As far as profit drop, that's to be expected at the rate they've been opening new stores. Notice there's not been a SALES drop. Apple's pretty good at conservatively growing itself. With the position of rampant popularity they're in, adding stores and expanding presence only makes sense.
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Alex said 1:18PM on 11-22-2006
One more note, he makes a rather large deal about the Stock price dipping down to $50 ish in July. A very good point...
But he neglects to mention it's currently at $89.65
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Hobofuzz said 1:51PM on 11-22-2006
Don't people say this about Apple EVERY YEAR around this time?
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Nicolas said 1:52PM on 11-22-2006
This has to be a joke. Quick Google found an even more preposterous article on how companies using Firefox have an unfair advantage over those using IE, and that is BAD thing...
www.waltercedric.com/content/view/488/61/
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Nicolas said 1:56PM on 11-22-2006
Darn! Broke the URL:
http://www.waltercedric.com/content/view/488/61/
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Berkana said 2:20PM on 11-22-2006
If, by "doomed", he means prosperous and winning market share and person-share from Dell, HP, and Microsoft, then yes, I agree: Apple is "doomed".
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James said 2:11PM on 11-22-2006
"In relative terms, the new Macbooks were impressively faster, but in an absolute sense Apple was only catching up to norm in the Windows world, and only offering half the performance possibility - where PC manufacturers may choose between Intel and AMD processors, Apple has restricted itself to only one side of the equation, running 100% Intel. If a buyer wants AMD performance, they can't get it from a Mac."
Wasn't Apple on of the first to implement the Core Duo? Because they were the first company I saw to advertise that fact, which means they weren't catching up they were ahead. And does this guy seriously consider a Turion a competitor to the Core Duo? Complete idiot...
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superjeff said 2:12PM on 11-22-2006
Ok, a few points if you haven't read the article yet...
"Apple's best choice for staying in business would be to milk the iPod for what it's worth over the next two years, and concede the music player market to Microsoft." - He loses all credibility right here. Microsoft has been in this market for all of what?.. two weeks? Apple should abandon a market they have been in 140X longer than their biggest competitor. Yes... the Zune is THAT much better!
"...a second option of licensing Mac OS X with iLife to a PC manufacturer with the experience of providing cheap volume produced computers such as Dell or HP could save them." - Apple is a high-end computer manufacturer. Does he believe that nobody anybody wants high end computers anymore?
"There's no reason for Apple to keep sinking dollars after hardware when it spends so much on R&D, for a product that's no different to any other PC on the market." - Ignorance. I actually heard a few months back Dell spends more on R&D than Apple.
"Even if the big three hardware manufacturers didn't go for Mac OS X..." - Right.... because this was an option for them.
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Ramesh said 2:22PM on 11-22-2006
This guys is obviously a fraud. In one article he is an 'industry analyst', in another, he is 'Microsoft security specialist'. Whatever MS is paying him, its too much... he is very obvious in showing his bias (and stupidity).
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MC said 2:19PM on 11-22-2006
This is the biggest pile of sh!t I have ever read.
First of all, his 1.621B drop shown in "Apple's figures" is neither sales nor profits, it's CASH. Where did that cash go? Well, directly into the short-term assets line right below it on the balance sheet. If the dipsh!t wants to talk balance sheet, maybe he should instead say that Apple's ASSETS increased by over $1.5B quarter to quarter. Sales and profits, of course, are increasing too.
I also love how he thinks that the Zune is going to overthrow the iPod/ITS with its 80% market share. I don't even need to refute that impossibility with statistics. It's too obvious.
As for the "aging" Mac platform and OS, perhaps he doesn't realize that Vista is not exactly "new" technology. Lots of that has been around since Win95 or earlier.
Oh, and that whopping $100M settlement paid to Creative to shut them up. Well that represents a mere 1.5% of Apple's 6.4B in cash or about 2 weeks of net income.
Sure, dumba$$, we'll just close up shop. Not going to take any time at all to erode that $76 BILLION in equity value that the stock currently represents.
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msc1974 said 2:26PM on 11-22-2006
That guy is a complete fu¢k knuckle... sound to me as if he's gone a bought Microsoft shares!
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Steve said 2:27PM on 11-22-2006
The sky is falling, the sky is falling!
(yeah.. right)
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Fred said 2:39PM on 11-22-2006
Definately a moron. I can only hope this is some strange joke or something. He's flat wrong on so many points. One thing I kind of thought about while reading this. He mentioned Apple's "dwindling market share" (20%-3%) but what does that mean in actual numbers? At the time when Apple had 20% computers were fewer than they are now. 3% is a huge number considering how many people have computers now! Nevermind, that it's growing every year. Anyway, I realize that's pretty obvious but it was the first time I'd thought of it that way.
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The Jeremy said 2:49PM on 11-22-2006
Reading that article makes me feel like I gotta go take a Zune in a few minutes. Or perhaps it was the Chipotle I ate yesterday. Nah, its the article.
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Stefan said 2:40PM on 11-22-2006
The Zune is a huge blow???
http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/new-for-you/top-sellers/-/electronics/all/
There are 9 iPods in the Top20 at Amazon... The Zune? at #45
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Old Joe said 3:45PM on 11-22-2006
And people claim Americans don't understand irony...
So far MacUser, Digg and yourselves have taken the story as real which seems to indicate a tendency for posters to want to be offended so they can have a whinge and prove their Mac credentials. You'd expect it at MDN but you'd think TUAW would be a little more circumspect in their fact checking.
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d said 2:43PM on 11-22-2006
Completely a tongue-in-cheek joke. You should read some of the other "articles" to get a sense for their humor. Especially about the 2 gram USB cable that costs $89.
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Clay said 3:17PM on 11-22-2006
The author is nucking futs.
I just finished a review of Apple's 2002-2005 annual reports, as well as the available data from 2006.
Sales are up across the board. The iPod has not slowed appreciably. Macs have meaningfully and impactfully increased marketshare. $109/share is not an unreasonable expectation according to one analyst.
Consider these little tidbits:
In fy2006, Apple sold 5.6 Million Macs, and 39 Million iPods.
Apple does not have any slack in it's supply chain.
The new iPods, the $75 model, literally cannot be kept in stock.
And there is real evidence that the iPod has in fact a "gateway drug" for the Mac itself.
The numbers do not lie, and I have 4 years of side-by-side analysis that shows Apple is in great condition, and the 2006 data available now suggests that their momentum is NOT slowing.
The author probably give freebie hummers to Ballmer. Or pays Ballmer for the privilege.
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kerimeton said 8:15AM on 9-14-2007
you guys are seriously all fanboys who cant accept two sides of an argument
this is certainly bias, but so are many pro-apple articles
so STFU and stop whineing, i bought a zune cause im sick of all this BS
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Monk050 said 3:25PM on 11-22-2006
Don't worry people, it's only satire. Very well done satire, by a fan boy in the first place.
The last hint was the "credentails" at the end with the 18 months of combined experience.
It's hilarious
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