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AAPL: Analysts forecasting stratospheric stock price

by Michael Grothaus Sep 21st 2011 at 5:45PM

Yesterday Apple (AAPL) hit an all-time intraday price of $422.86 and currently it is trading around $413. However, those prices seem cheap compared to what almost every analyst thinks AAPL will do in the next twelve months. DailyFinance has a roundup of analyst expectations for Apple's (AAPL) stock price and it appears that the sky is the limit.

Forty-six analysts believe AAPL will hit a mean of $500 in the next twelve months (not much of a stretch since that's only a 20% increase) while some believe the stock could hit as much as $666 a share in the same period. Their estimates are based on many things, including AAPL's EPS (earnings per share) forecast of $27.53 for 2011, and $32.39 for 2012, compared to $15.15 in 2010.

It also doesn't hurt that, as I tweeted a few days ago, this is the second year in the row in which the iPad has no viable competition for the holidays. That means that the iPad will dominate holiday tablet sales again. And this holiday quarter is a much more important quarter to do it in than last year as tablets are hitting the mainstream now and are sure to be popular gifts not just among the tech crowd, but among mom and pop consumers as well. That's to say nothing of the iPhone 5 and rumored, cheaper iPhone 4S. Those three devices, plus the wild popularity of Apple's MacBook Airs will be why Apple owns this holiday season and why I believe the stock is going to hit $500 by January 1st.

I know, I know, what does a blogger know about the stock market? But matter of fact, in 2009 when AAPL was trading at under $200 a share I wrote "I believe that AAPL could hit $300 by the end of 2010 and $400 the year later." I was blasted in the comments for writing that but, as it turns out, I was absolutely right. So this time I'm going to stick with my $500 January 1st target and I think the analysts at the higher end of the spectrum are dead right. AAPL could be trading well into the $600s be the end of next year.

The sky's the limit.

Disclaimer: This author owns shares in AAPL. Opinions in this post are those of the author only and should not be considered as investment advice.



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Yesterday Apple (AAPL) hit an all-time intraday price of $422.86 and currently it is trading around $413. However, those prices seem...
 

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hiddenbryce

It'll hit $700 before 2012-- For two main reasons; 1) people overreacts, which sometimes it's awesome for situations like this one. 2) Apple will be releasing new iPhone(s), iPods & maybe iPad(s) this year but Apple is going to surprise us with a new product line in early 2012. Tho, it wouldn't take the regime away from iPhone/iPad but it's in entirely new category-- you guys wouldn't see this coming. If it doesn't come out soon-- I do know that at least one of their current product line will be totally revamped... I am not talking about macbook pros having similar Air form-- I know you all read the rumors too but I'm not talking about that one :). A good hint here, think of old iMac-- flower looking one and Cube combined. It might be missing one of output devices we all currently use.

Back on stock part-- Apple will split in 2012. Beside the luxury for them doing that but believe or not, they will need to-- they are going to do some serious shopping & needs a lot of $$. Hey, bark at me all you want but it'll happen.

APPL, buy some today while it's still low.

Comment on, tho-- please don't be one of jerks who posts nasty comments and sorry, but don't ask me where I got my sources. Let's say they are only my wild predications and I wanted to share them.

September 22 2011 at 11:13 AM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
TXNole

One of the things that is seldom discussed is that Apple isn't returning any equity to shareholders through dividends. Shareholders are currently content with a growth "port" in an otherwise troubling market "storm", but institutional investors are going to want to better understand how APPL will retune equity in the next 24 months.

September 22 2011 at 10:32 AM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
Rorsemp

No viable competition? Samsung Galaxy 10.1 is certainly competition... what an offhanded remark.

September 21 2011 at 11:22 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
2 replies to Rorsemp's comment
culsoh

It's certainly competition if you think forging something is worthy of competing. I'm assuming the writer means there's nothing original in the market that touches iPad. Why aren't you?

September 22 2011 at 12:26 AM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
Michael Grothaus

@Rorsemp There's nothing innovative about the Tab that is compelling people to buy it. To date Samsung has sold less than 25,000 units out of the one million they shipped. Apple has sold 30,000,000 iPads and iPad 2s to date. 25-thousand vs 30-million. That's where "no viable competition" comes from.

September 22 2011 at 12:33 AM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
1 reply to Michael Grothaus's comment
Rorsemp

Michael, although I would like to dispute your sales number, since you are basing those purely on Lenovos guessed numbers, I would instead like to focus on the aspect of the use of "no viable competition". If you based competition solely on sales numbers then that is a poor use of the word competition. Competition should be focused on the actual offerings of the company, how competitive the hardware is, software, etc, not the sales numbers. A better word might of been "popular". There is competition on the market right now, and most notably from Samsung.

As far as nothing "innovative" let me pick that apart too. Innovation marks something new to the Market. So Samsung have not only come up with the thinnest AND lightest tablet, excuse me if that isn't innovation, but they also have Android running on it. Now, Michael, as a Apple fan, I am sure you are aware of the upcoming "new" features of iOS 5, such as the notification bar (copied from Android), cloud sync (copied from Android), Newsstand (copied from Android), Reminder (copied from Android), Wireless Sync (copied from Android), Widgets (copied from Android), Twitter Integration (copied from Android), and the like. Now if you are truly trying to tell me that the iPad is PURE innovation, then I must admit, I think you might have to reconsider.

I can't even respond to Culsoh, the comment doesn't even warrant a response.

September 22 2011 at 5:41 PM Report abuse rate up rate down
Dan

I hope they have a stock split soon

September 21 2011 at 11:04 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
tnargus

I would love to have shares in this company. Too bad I didn't jump on board 5 years ago.

September 21 2011 at 10:19 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
1 reply to tnargus's comment
Chris Giddings

Should have jumped in back in 2001 before the iPod was released and the stock price was under $20 a share, and before the 2005 stock split.

Or maybe back in 1997 before the 2001 stock split and the stock price was even lower.

You're be rolling in it now!

September 22 2011 at 1:06 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
Bob Tentpeg

"those prices seam cheap"

*seem

September 21 2011 at 8:32 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
Sam Waterbury

And then, of course, the iPhone 5 comes out in a few weeks.

September 21 2011 at 6:18 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
Shannon Doherty

How many shares do you own, Michael?

September 21 2011 at 6:05 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
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