Filed under: Analysis / Opinion, Apple Corporate, Apple Financial, Steve Jobs
Analyst: Apple doesn't need Jobs forever
Technology analyst Ezra Gottheil recently talked with PC World about Apple's future without Steve Jobs:"Apple doesn't need Jobs anymore. He's established three sound businesses -- Mac, iPod and the iPhone -- and the company knows how to execute his fanatical devotion to design and usability. There's a stable management team in place, and they know what they're doing."Which is worse? The media's morbid fascination with Steve's (hopefully long-in-the-future) retirement or death, or the notion that he's too dumb or self-important to have created a plan of succession?
I'm not privy to Apple's management process or strategy, and I assume Ezra isn't either, but it's safe to say he's right about that. The Mac, iPod and iPhone are well established and I'm sure the business plans for each platform look far into the future.
The larger question is, will Apple be successful without Steve Jobs? That's the question that scares investors and causes the stock to dive when some jerk posts a fake story about Steve's health. The fear isn't completely unfounded. The last time Steve left Apple, the company nearly disappeared. In fact, it was only after he returned that Apple was saved.
But that was different. Steve was asked to leave, and not afforded the opportunity to identify a successor. I'm certain that a plan is in place today which will ensure the company's future. Will Apple be the same without Steve Jobs? No, of course not. But will it be bad?
No, of course not.
[Via MacDailyNews]
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 2)
Rowdehaj said 11:50AM on 10-07-2008
I was having just such a conversation with my dad yesterday - and I do think Apple would be worse off without Jobs. Perhaps Ive would be a good CEO, but shouldn't designers simply keep to designing, leaving ole' Steve-o as the happy exception?
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joop said 12:05PM on 10-07-2008
"Until now, Sony seemes to loose the battle while Apple currently stays ahead of the curve. Steve Jobs might have a visionary outlook, but Apple is likely to become the next Sony the day he resigns." -> http://tinyurl.com/3hcv55
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Joshua Weinberg said 12:08PM on 10-07-2008
One interesting thing that Steve has created that people don't usually mention is: A process for launching products.
Many people assume Apple's launch strength is based only on Steve's charisma and presentation style. But, there is a much bigger system and philosophy in place behind the scenes.
I put some of my observations about how Apple launches products in this article:
http://voices.allthingsd.com/category/josh-weinberg/
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BobbyW said 4:08PM on 10-07-2008
The Wall Street Journal has to poach page views from TUAW with
comment spam? For shame...
Albert said 6:17PM on 10-07-2008
I think the issue with Jobs is that he is Apple in so many people's eyes. Look at the time when he was gone, the company lost identity, because it was someone else's vision. Designers surely will keep designing, but its the vision behind aligning the company's business that Jobs does so well, and ultimately his salesmanship is something that you can't teach in business and management school.
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Josh Monroe said 12:09PM on 10-07-2008
Another thing to consider is the type of atmosphere that existed at Apple when he was forced out of the company. I imagine that it was not the kind of place that would have done too well unless it changed (which it did when Steve came back)
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Wyseguy said 12:14PM on 10-07-2008
I think Apple without Steve would be different, but I don't think it would necessarily be worse. There are a lot of things about Apple that could change for the better. Most of these are hidden from public view, but they are areas Apple has ignored, and needs to fix.
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Blake said 12:24PM on 10-07-2008
I think that Steve leaving before and when he departs the next time will be TOTALLY different. He will hand pick the correct successor for the job and he will choose someone that will carry the business forward like he has since the bondi iMac days.
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Squid7085 said 12:26PM on 10-07-2008
Steve is smart. This is his company, this is his baby, I think after the first time he "left" his entire ideal was that the company could not survive without him. I am pretty sure that changed, as he now knows they will HAVE to survive without him.
Look at what has happened in the past two years, the Keynotes have been increasingly handed over to other people, Ives, Schiller, and Forestall stick out to me. Jobs has a plan, and he is training right now, and putting the trainees through the paces. I think we can be pretty confident, that on that sad day Jobs leaves, he will have an incredible successor to run the company that could very well be the spitting image of him. Remember, last time he hired somebody to run the company, it didn't turn out too well. He isn't about to make that mistake again.
In my opinion, it will be either Schiller or Forestall. However, Forestall sticks out to me as trying to be just like Steve, so we will see. Heh.
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PSM said 5:32PM on 10-07-2008
Yeah I agree, the trend of letting others get more stage time at keynotes is good. The Apple faithful associate Steve's persona with the exciting new products Apple makes, and it will be a much easier transition whenever that day comes, if people already feel familiar with the other faces that are behind these products.
ipodrulz said 6:01PM on 10-07-2008
Forestall must be looking forward to his $1 salary!
Lars said 12:27PM on 10-07-2008
The way Jobs left the company in the nineties cannot be compared with today's situation. It was an hostile ousting in a time when all computer related businesses were suffering.
Now we have a much more stable environment, excellent hardware (cpu's, materials) to choose from and a clear idea on Apple's part where it wants to be.
Jobs undeniably adds a certain panache and maniacal force to the company, but if he leaves (I wish him all the best and a healhty retirement) - Apple is in a much better situation to stay Apple, if they can keep their eye on the ball and build upon what's here presently.
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JohnPQ said 12:33PM on 10-07-2008
It might be good if he goes. The guy can't even update the Mac mini in over a year for the average person. He is going to sink the ship with his AIO elitist attitude. You don't have to look further than the stock price to see that....
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glassmonkey said 1:13PM on 10-07-2008
Yeah because Apple's stock isn't part of this economy crisis we are going through right now. Every other stock is part of that, but Apple's is dropping because the mac mini is outdated... heh.
Patrick said 12:38PM on 10-07-2008
Apple could go for five years or so with their "three-legged stool" model. But after that, who is going to come up the next successful idea?
Apple is in the technology business, which is constantly changing. Apple (and any tech company) needs a strong leader with really good ideas, or else they'll eventually flounder.
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Frank Lowney said 2:17PM on 10-07-2008
As to the assertion that "a stable management is in place," here's an important area to investigate:
1) What is the MBA density at Apple today and has it grown appreciably in the last few years. In other words, is there a correlation between MBA density and some of the dumber decisions to come out of Apple recently?
2) What is the current level of job satisfaction in engineering, R&D, etc.? How does that compare with the last 3-4 years?
Or, if you could interview Steve Jobs himself, what would his answer be to this question: How many times have you had to intervene to protect R&D, engineering, etc. from being bullied/suppressed/sidelined by others in the company? Who were the offenders?
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Brad said 1:57PM on 10-07-2008
SIMPLE RESPONSE: "Yeah, they do"
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Danny (from Scotland) said 2:26PM on 10-07-2008
For me the issue is largely about taste. Steve's taste is excellent. And this is reflected across very many levels of Apple activity. There will be other folk with good ideas, good marketing savvy, excellent management skills etc. But the soul of Apple is the unflinching commitment to do things really well, to a standard that satisfies someone who has insanely high standards. And, if that's not possible, Apple under Steve is prepared to simply not do things (or not release them). This kind of unflinching commitment is relatively rare. Apple won't be the same company without it, and not easy to see Apple doing it without Steve.
My point here is borrowed / adapted via Chairman Gruber: http://daringfireball.net/linked/2008/08/02/mpt-free-software-usability
Anyone who's not seen and heard Steve on taste (and Bill Gates' lack of) will appreciate this clip (in this instance with fun extras from Andy Hertzfeld and Bill Gates himself): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oBISzVRmYIM
Danny
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PXT said 2:43PM on 10-07-2008
(1) I agree very much with Danny (from Scotland) above, when he refers to Steve Jobs commitment to doing things really well, and also to not release a feature if it cannot be done well.
There are few people in technology, or any business, who can stick to these values the way Steve Jobs does.
Additionally I would say that the commitment to simplicity, which requires making tough value judgements is very rare, especially in software where the culture is one of adding features to solve problems. Jobs is very unusual in that regard and we have no idea how that transfer of values has progressed.
(2) Also agree with the post from Frank Lowney above re questions that need to be asked. The original author at top says "I'm certain that a plan is in place today which will ensure the company's future.", but she is not certain at all. Let's not live on blind hope. I am 40 and plan to live to 100, so I need Jobs values to last another fifty years or so cos I'm going Mac and I'm NEVER going back.
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grull27 said 3:23PM on 10-07-2008
Well if you guys don't need him, give him to me! :D
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