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No Apple stock split...for now.

Thursday, Briefings.com, CNBC and a passel of other market analysts predicted that a 4 for 1 stock split would be announced at the Apple Shareholder Meeting. This rumor moved the market, but there are conflicting opinions to why. First, for the uninitiated, a stock split is a zero sum game. One interpretation is that a firm considers its stock too highly priced for the average consumer and decides to split. For example, let's say that Apple is trading for $200 and you have one share. If a 4 for 1 stock split takes place, you will wind up 4 shares, instead of 1, but each share will be valued at $50. Did you gain or lose any money? No. It's all on paper. However, to those not familiar with the Buttonwood tree, and that's a lot of us, it sounds like 'quick buy Apple and you'll be getting 4 times as much'. The case for this sort of stupidity is well made by Barrons.

Stock splits are nothing new to AAPL. They've split 2 for 1 three time in the past, in June 1987, June 2000 and February 2005.

There are two general schools of thought on the reason behind stock splits, and they are total opposites. The first theory is that a company will split a stock if it is in trouble to allow lower dollar investors to buy their shares at half the price and thus incur less risk. The other school of thought is that a good company realizes their stock is just too expensive for the small trader who has some cash on the sidelines. It is meant to give the small guy an easier way to buy some stock without needing to commit the $200 for a share. Both sides have their points and, to an extent, both points are based on smoke and mirrors since they do not effect the worth of the company or the aggregate value of the stock by one penny.
Unless I read the word 'drop' wrong, it seems to me that the stock was down, and then the rumor came in and the stock shot up. There was no word of a split at the shareholder meeting, but as a long term AAPL watcher, I wouldn't count out a split happening in the near future. However that's just me.

Another story that seems to be gaining traction, for no good reason that I can surmise, is that Apple will declare a dividend of $33.00 per share, returning 16.66% to investors. Doing so would mean relinquishing 75% of its moneybags this year while taxes on dividends and passive income are low. It would also take Apple's walking around money from from $40 billion to $10 billion. I really wonder where this one got started since Apple hasn't declared a dividend since 1995, and playing Scrooge McDuck seems to keep Steve happy. Although Apple isn't known for buying a lot of companies scatter-shot, it's quite nice to be able to buy what you want when the right opportunity presents itself without worrying about nasty things like financing. And I haven't heard much, if any, grousing directed at Apple not forking over the dividends. Tell me if I'm wrong, but this seems like a non-story.

With all these stories whirling about, Apple went up $5.97 to close at $202.86 on Thursday. What do you make of this? Reading all the interpretations of Thurday's action makes my brain hurt.

The bottom line is: nothing happened.

Disclaimer: I own some Apple stock and all the opinions are my own.

Thursday, Briefings.com, CNBC and a passel of other market analysts predicted that a 4 for 1 stock split would be announced at the Apple...
 

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Johnexo

The Stock Split would allow many more people to become AAPL Shareholders. It would also take the joy out of Shorting this stock which is the favorite yo-yo of the Hedgefunds. I would love to have four shares at $50.50 per share for every one of my $202.00 shares.
http://www.prime-targeting.com/apple-of-our-eye/


January 27 2011 at 12:13 AM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
Skeptic

May be a 10 for 1 split when it reaches $300 a share.

October 08 2010 at 3:08 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
Jeem

"they do not effect [sic] the worth of the company " LOL

March 02 2010 at 2:43 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
Gunnar

"One interpretation is that a firm considers its stock too highly priced for the average consumer and decides to split."

Not to split hairs (so to speak), but share holders are investors, not consumers.

March 01 2010 at 11:41 AM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
Tony

I don't believe that one would properly call a stock split "a zero sum game." In a zero sum game, the net wins of one player balances the net losses of the other players. In other words, one person wins in proportion to the losses of another. For example, chess is a zero sum game, since in any game, one player wins only when the other player loses. Similarly, in a game of poker the amount that the winner walks away with is equal to the losses of the other players.

The point you seem to be making is that the value of the stock held before the split is equal to the value held after the split. In this case, there really aren't any net wins/losses to balance each other out.

February 27 2010 at 9:16 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
David Winograd

I thank you for your advice.

However, I spent years doing technical analysis of financial markets and ran a number of limited partnerships in the eighties.

I think that the psychology is a bit different. I think that Apple, as a brand with amazing loyalty, has a huge untapped market of little guys who want some stock. Of course 72% is owned by institutions but 28% ain't chopped liver.

Will this involve program trading. Yes, I think it will, but I'm in for the long hall and have made over 350% since I bought my first share.

And Apple declaring a dividend? Of course that was nonsense. I even said that it hadn't happened since 1995 and debunked it in my post.

David

David

February 27 2010 at 8:44 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
Jules Stoop

CV is right. David seems to have forgotten the psychology at play when trading a lower priced stock.

February 27 2010 at 8:03 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
1 reply to Jules Stoop's comment
cv

"David seems to have forgotten the psychology at play when trading a lower priced stock."

Which is why technology writers shouldn't be commenting about the stock market. They often ignore human factors, whether it be ease-of-use, customer satisfaction, or other basic human responses and desires. This is even a bigger problem when they comment about financial matters because most technology writers have even less understanding of finances than they do about technology or humans.

If technology writers want to report earnings results, that's fine. Just don't start interpreting them or reposting inane speculation like this dividend payout garbage. Apple isn't paying out a dividend. It was made reiterate for the upteenth time in the recent Goldman Sachs conference as well as the shareholder meeting.

February 27 2010 at 8:23 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
Rego

I agree in total with CV!

February 27 2010 at 7:56 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
Brooks

It's also worth noting that Apple's pile of cash is already priced into the stock; if they paid out $30B in dividends, their market cap would drop (approximately) by that same $30B, to about $155B. That'd bring share price down by about $30/share. You could turn around and buy more shares with your dividend, but it would be post-tax money.

February 27 2010 at 7:55 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
cv

Technology writers shouldn't comment about financial matters, particularly the stock market.

First of all, there is a difference between a high-priced stock and a lower one post-split, but not on paper. The fact of the matter is that *humans* buy stocks and the less expensive one seems more like a bargain, especially to many retail investors (like "Aunt Millie").

Arguably, this wouldn't be the case with a stock like AAPL which is largely (72%) held by institutional investors and mutual funds, but it is still the case. The lower pricing results in more trade activity, which in turn fuels activity of automatic program trading (trading that mostly controlled by computer algorithms).

The most recent notable stock split that clearly showed that a lower stock price drives up trading is the 50-to-1 stock split of Class B shares of Berkshire Hathaway. With the additional volume, the Standard & Poors selected Berkshire Hathaway to be part of the S&P 500 index. That drove up additional volume, as S&P 500 index funds (and others) were compelled to acquire shares of BRK-B.

That's one example of how a stock split isn't just the same, even if you do the basic math on paper. There are far greater implications to a stock split than the number of shares in your account and what they are worth.

Apple really should split the stock, just to drive up volume.

As to the dividend rumor, that's complete nonsense. Apple senior management has made it clear that they like the flexibility of having a lot of that cash on hand.

As an AAPL shareholder, would I like a dividend payout? The casual outsider might say, "duh, take the dividend", but I've looked at my ROI over the past five years and I doubt that I could take the AAPL dividend and find an investment that matches that sort of return. I am convinced that Apple executives have an overall better idea of how that money could be reinvested in the company (acquisitions, R&D, additional staffing, etc.) so I am content to not receive a dividend.

As an aside, Warren Buffett is against paying dividends also.

February 27 2010 at 7:43 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
5 replies to cv's comment
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